Americans could be forgiven for knowing little about Ukraine except its role in a presidential impeachment. But it’s now been almost six years since Russia seized one region of the country, Crimea, then precipitated war in another – with dire consequences. Cynthia Buckley is an Illinois sociology professor and demographer, and a co-leader of a U.S. Department of Defense-funded project looking for keys to stability and security in Ukraine and two other former Soviet republics, Estonia and Georgia. She spoke with News Bureau social sciences editor Craig Chamberlain.
We’ve heard in congressional hearings that the war in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine has resulted in more than 13,000 deaths, which is tragic in its own right. But what have been the wider consequences of the conflict?
The intensity of the conflict has declined since the first year, 2014, but sporadic shelling and other military engagements continue to generate significant costs to human security along the line of contact between the pro-Russian regions and those remaining under control of the Ukrainian state.
Even if the most recent agreements to prevent military engagement are successful, there will be long-term consequences resulting from nearly 2 million people being displaced from the region, dramatic and negative impacts on the environment, reduced staffing in the critical areas of health care and education, and compromised abilities to hold free and accessible elections. Substantial damage to infrastructure along the line of contact also poses long-term challenges for the entire region of eastern Ukraine, regardless of where and how borders will be drawn.
How do those issues affect Ukraine’s stability and security?
Ukraine's internally displaced population represents a substantial drain on limited state resources and a sizable, ongoing challenge to the provision of housing, education, social security payments and other state resources. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that 1.5 million residents of eastern Ukraine are now living in other regions of the country, with an additional 500,000 former residents now living in the Russian Federation.
Our research highlights a key motivation for this massive displacement: the damage to humanitarian infrastructure across the Donbas. We have documented extensive damage to hospitals, clinics and schools, particularly along the line of military contact. Nearly one-third of all health care facilities and over 250 regional schools have been damaged or otherwise compromised since the beginning of the hostilities in 2014. Other key infrastructure related to water, transportation, sewage systems and environmental protection has also suffered damage. Not surprisingly, residents remaining in the region have also faced diminished access to voting, due to the closure of polling places near the line of contact.
Damage to humanitarian infrastructure presents substantial challenges to the reassertion of Ukraine’s state capacity within the regions bordering Donbas and in the breakaway regions themselves. Moreover, the costs of rehabilitating public and private infrastructure across regions affected by military conflict are extensive, requiring substantial aid commitments from the international community if the area is to be stabilized.
U.S. aid for Ukraine’s military has received the attention, but what are key areas that might get overlooked?
Russia’s clear military involvement on the side of the breakaway regions necessitates the U.S. continuing to provide military hardware and training to Ukraine as a means of deterring further Russian aggression. But continued support for diplomatic talks focused on ending the conflict is a priority, as is more funding for agencies such as the UNHCR, which assists internally displaced persons, and the Halo Trust, which is devoted to the removal of land mines.
These organizations may provide more effective approaches to enhancing human security in the short term. In the mid to long term, greater attention to the importance of infrastructural repair and the provision of basic state services is critical if Ukraine is to maintain control over its eastern border, let alone regain governing control in the Donbas.