Illinois government and public affairs experts
With the latest campaign season over, Illinois will be looking past slogans and promises and facing harsh fiscal realities, including a budget deficit of $13 billion and growing. What will it take for Springfield to close the gap? Can it expect any help from the lagging Illinois economy? Do the Nov. 2 results indicate any long-term trends in Illinois or national politics? News Bureau social sciences editor Craig Chamberlain posed questions to Rick Winkel, an adjunct professor of law and former Republican state senator; J. Fred Giertz, a professor of economics and the producer of the monthly U. of I. Flash Economic Index; and Jim Kuklinski, a political scientist who studies voting trends. All three are in the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at Illinois.
Rick Winkel
Do Tuesday's statehouse results promise any change in the budget deadlock?
No. It appears the Democrats have hung on to power in both chambers, but when the spring legislative session bell rings in January, the partisan divide will have shifted in the House to at least 64 Democrats and no more than 54 Republicans (it was 70-48, and 60 is a majority), and it looks like the Senate will be 34-25 (it was a veto-proof majority at 37-22, and 30 is a majority). Thus, Michael Madigan will remain speaker of the house and John Cullerton president of the senate for another two years. The new, much narrower partisan split does not look promising for bipartisan cooperation. Rather, I anticipate an intensified round of political-will testing among the state leaders through much of the spring 2011 session.
Is serious consideration of a tax increase any more likely in the short term?
No. Many newly elected legislators campaigned on a no-new-taxes and budget austerity platform and would likely vote against budget bills that include a general tax increase. Thus, were such a measure to pass it would require Democrats to go it alone in both chambers. This assumes, however, that the minority leaders (Chris Radogno and Tom Cross in the Senate and House, respectively) are willing and able to maintain discipline within their partisan caucuses to prevent a subgroup from voting with the Democrats on the budget.
In order to pass a budget on a structured bipartisan roll call, the governor and legislative leaders would probably have a summit to negotiate comprehensive solutions to the budget crisis, including spending cuts, payment of past-due obligations, and taxes. Other issues would also become entwined in the process and influence the outcome of the end-of-session negotiations, especially trade-offs that concern capital programs, dedicated revenue streams for bond payments, and legislative redistricting.
Neither Brady nor Quinn gave many details about where or how he might cut in trying to balance the budget. Are there obvious targets, or are we more likely to see cuts across the board?
There are not enough politically attainable targeted cuts to balance the budget. Solely relying on spending cuts would necessitate substantial cuts across the board, the extent of which would have to be negotiated and agreed to by the governor and Legislature. Of course, the crux of the matter is whether such a balanced-budget agreement would be attainable without a general tax increase. If Pat Quinn is governor, then support might build in the Legislature for a tax increase. That will not happen under Bill Brady.
J. Fred Giertz
What can we expect from the Illinois economy over the coming year? Can Springfield expect any help from a growth in tax revenues?
The Illinois economy will likely continue its slow recovery from the recent recession. The Illinois unemployment rate has fallen from 12.2 percent in January to below 10 percent today. The Illinois rate is now only slightly above the national rate. Nevertheless, it will take a year or more for the rate to fall to more acceptable levels.
Regardless of the rate of growth of the economy, the recovery will not solve the state's fiscal problem. Even a 5 percent growth in revenues would produce only $1.5 billion in extra funds, leaving a $4.5 billion hole in the annual state budget where spending exceeds revenues by $6 billion.
What can Springfield do, if anything, that might help the Illinois economy?
There are no short-term fixes that can have a major impact. Illinois is a slow-growing, but relatively high-income state where a quick turnaround is unlikely. The most effective response from Springfield would be to address the state's budget problems with a creditable long-term plan. This would lessen the uncertainty that hangs over the economy. There is little evidence that the governor or General Assembly is willing to impose this discipline.
Most of the budget solutions look politically tough to pull off, but are there any partial, easy fixes that haven't been considered?
There are no easy fixes. The so-called easy fixes of the last eight years such as borrowing, selling assets, deferring payments and pension underfunding have led to the current morass. The state needs discipline and commitment, not more short-term expedients.
Jim Kuklinski
Anything surprise you about the Nov. 2 vote?
Three things: Quinn's apparent win in the gubernatorial race; the general success, given the state of affairs, of Democrats in the legislative elections; and the general success, given the state of affairs, of Democrats in statewide elections. In short, the capacity of Illinois' state politicians to buffer themselves from voters' negative reactions to Democrats in Washington was not only surprising, it was impressive.
Illinois has been trending more Democratic in recent years. Do the Republican gains in this election indicate any serious shift away from that?
That the biggest shift toward Republicans occurred in the congressional rather than the state elections suggests that the biggest negative reaction was to the Obama administration, which results across the country confirm. Overall, the Democrats did not fare as poorly in state legislative elections as one might have expected.
I do not see a definite shift away from the Democratic Party. One must remember that self-proclaimed Democrats far outnumber self-proclaimed Republicans in this state. People usually retain their partisan identifications, even when, in a given election, they vote for candidates of the other party. And, in the Nov. 2 election, even the momentary shift to Republican candidates was not overwhelming.
One must keep in mind that the Democrats won the presidency two years ago. We would expect the Democrats to fare less well in the following nonpresidential election. It appears that voters' negative reactions to the Obama administration's performance were a bit stronger than usual because of the bad economy and a sense that the administration was not addressing the concerns of ordinary citizens, but, at least with respect to Illinois, most of that angst appears to have been restricted to congressional elections.
Next year Illinois, along with every other state, will be redrawing its political districts based on new census numbers. How might Tuesday's results affect the redistricting process?
From the perspective of redistricting, state Democratic leaders should be feeling reassured about now. If Quinn remains as governor, the Democrats will be able to redistrict so as to maintain their majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature. The loss of Democrat seats in congressional elections might advantage the Republican Party with respect to redistricting of congressional districts, but, even there, Democrats will retain considerable influence.
Despite media commentary about the backlash against the Democratic Party, Speaker of the House Michael Madigan presumably did not feel particularly insecure the morning after the election.