Recent events in the Middle East and Japan have distracted world leaders from an acute political crisis in Ivory Coast, but renewed attention to the West African nation is critical to the health of millions of its people, says U. of I. geography professor Thomas Bassett, an expert on poverty and hunger in Ivory Coast. If civil war occurs as a result of President Laurent Gbagbo's refusal to cede power, it would plunge the country's most vulnerable citizens into poverty and lead to widespread hunger. Bassett was interviewed by News Bureau life sciences editor Diana Yates.
You have written that although Gbagbo created the crisis, the response of his opponent, Allasane Ouattara, could increase or lessen the likelihood of a civil war in Ivory Coast. How?
Ouattara won the Nov. 28, 2010, presidential election, gaining 54 percent of the vote. The United Nations certified the election, the first ever in Africa. Gbagbo refuses to step down. He staged a "constitutional coup" by having his cronies on the country's highest court annul the vote and declare him the victor. The military supports Gbagbo but the question is for how long. The U.N. Security Council and the African Union recognize Ouattara as the country's democratically elected president. The challenge for Ouattara is to persuade the military and other Gbagbo supporters to cross over into his camp. To do so he needs to send a signal that this is the end of "winner-takes-all" elections by forming a government that includes representatives from the opposition parties, excluding Gbagbo. But Gbagbo's thirst for power at all costs is unlikely to change the position of his hardliners, many of whom have been subject to sanctions by the United States and the European Union. The window of opportunity to leave the presidential palace without serious consequences has closed.
If civil war were to occur, how would it affect the poorest people in the nation, many of whom are already living on less than the U.S.-equivalent of $1.25 a day?
The general effect of a civil war will be to deepen poverty, increase food insecurity, and reduce access to health and education services. This will have devastating consequences, especially for the extreme poor, who led precarious lives in the best of times.
There are two hotspots in the conflict: in the far western departments of Toulépleu and Douékué and in pro-Ouattara neighborhoods of Abidjan, the economic capital.
Tens of thousands of people have fled their homes in the west. Many of them have crossed into Liberia; the rest are internally displaced. More than 200,000 people have fled the fierce fighting in the Abobo neighborhood. These displaced people are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. The U.N. reports food reserves and medical supplies are low. Economic sanctions and trade embargoes have led to bank closures so that even people with money can't access it and have become vulnerable to food shortages. Major disruptions in HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programs also are occurring.
In "The Atlas of World Hunger," which you co-wrote in 2010 with U. of I. agriculture and consumer economics professor Alex Winter-Nelson, you described the political realities that influence world hunger. What are they?
Ivory Coast sadly illustrates one of the main points we make in the book. Hunger vulnerability is high where governments are unaccountable to people and entitlements weak. It is lower where capable and responsive government is combined with strong entitlements. Laurent Gbagbo is the epitome of unaccountability. Not only does he ignore the wishes of the electorate, but like Robert Mugabe, of Zimbabwe, he blames others for the disaster he has brought upon the Ivorian people. The political crisis has engendered an economic crisis that only seems to be getting worse. According to recent U.N. reports, money is scarce and the most vulnerable are eating "whatever they can find."
Does hunger also have a role in increasing or decreasing political stability?
Hunger vulnerability, which we define as both actual hunger and the likelihood of falling into hunger, has been heightened by the political crisis in Ivory Coast. It can only lead to greater instability as people become more desperate for change. The more widespread the suffering, the greater the prospect of heightened unrest.
How is the political turmoil affecting the people you've worked with in Ivory Coast?
Colleagues and friends in the northern part of the nation report life is more or less normal. This does not mean life is good. There was a tense week in early March when Gbagbo seized control of the country's energy company and turned off the electricity to the north. Hospitals were unable to operate and people suffered greatly. In Abidjan, my colleagues at the University of Cocody report that classes are not being taught because students can't get to campus. Public transportation is disrupted and many students are trapped in residential areas where fighting is taking place. Salaries are inaccessible because of bank closures. Streets are deserted after 2 p.m. as everyone hurries home to avoid being stopped by soldiers or armed thugs at barricades.
Fear runs particularly high in residential areas where Gbagbo has imposed nighttime curfews. Many of the hundreds of deaths and countless abductions have taken place at night at the hands of men in uniform. The hope for peace and reunification that many felt on the eve of the election has been completely dashed by Gbagbo's dictatorial turn. The people I know are terrified by the unprecedented violence and uncertain future. If and when Ouattara assumes power, he faces the enormous challenge of healing the divisions that have significantly widened during this electoral crisis.