On Dec. 5, the Global Carbon Project published the Global Carbon Budget 2023, giving world leaders access to data on atmospheric carbon concentrations, emissions and trends. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign atmospheric scientist Atul Jain is among the many scientists worldwide who contributed data to the report. Jain talked about the current state of the carbon budget and this year’s findings with News Bureau physical sciences editor Lois Yoksoulian.
What increases did the 2023 carbon budget reveal, and how do carbon emissions now compare to pre-COVID-19 levels?
After a brief pause during COVID-19, global carbon emissions from fossil fuel and industry – the main contributors to climate change – are set to increase significantly. In 2023, the emissions are projected to be 36.8 billion tons, advancing to a record level. Looking at historical trends, emissions are 1.4% above the 2019 pre-COVID-19 levels and about 1.1% above the 2022 level, unprecedented compared with the average growth of 0.5% per year in the last 10 years. Emissions from land-use change – such as deforestation – are projected to increase to 4.1 billion tons, a slight decrease compared to previous years but still high enough to be offset by current levels of forestation.
What was the likely cause of the increasing trend in the rise of carbon emissions?
Even though emissions in the two most advanced areas of the world, the U.S. and the EU, are expected to decline by 3 and 7.3%, the rest of the world’s emissions are projected to increase by only about 0.4% in 2023. The overall global total emissions are projected to increase mainly because of the world’s two most populous countries – China and India – whose emissions are projected to increase at much higher rates compared to 2022.
China’s fossil emissions are projected to grow 4% in 2023 due to emissions rebounding from the COVID-19 lockdown lows in 2022. While China has seen stronger wind and solar power growth, higher power demand saw major increases in coal-fired power and oil consumption due to increased domestic transportation.
In the case of India, emissions are projected to increase by about 8.2%, mainly due to growth in coal-fired power demand. As a result, India’s fossil emissions are now higher than the EU’s since 2022. Overall, emissions from all conventional energy sources – coal, oil and gas – are projected to increase by 1.1, 1.5, and 0.5%, suggesting the current investment in carbon-emission-free technologies is insufficient to meet the current demand for energy growth.
If the emissions keep rising, does that mean the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement are not achievable?
Unfortunately, global emissions keep rising, even though nearly all U.N. member states have committed to net-zero emissions. It is now inevitable that global temperatures will overshoot not only the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit but also the 2-degree limit goals of the Paris Agreements sooner than 2050. If countries want to accomplish the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees, emissions must decline faster. That would require massive investments in cost-effective, carbon-emission-free technologies that can provide additional tens of terawatts of primary energy in the coming decades. In addition, it requires investment in other technologies that can control atmospheric CO2 growth and climate change, including efficiency improvements, geoengineering, hydrogen production, storage and transport, nature-based means such as reforestation, establishment of new forests and other advanced technologies.
What do you hope to see from the U.N. Climate Summit (COP 28) currently underway in the United Arab Emirates?
It is now inevitable that some adaptation to a changing climate will be necessary. However, the extent of the adaptation will depend on countries’ willingness to take stringent actions sooner rather than later. At the COP 28 meeting in UAE, I believe the world leaders must follow a two-pronged strategy. First, they must agree on swift emission reduction targets and how those reductions will be shared between nations to control fast-worsening climate impacts. At the same time, country leaders must proactively implement robust measures to enhance climate adaptation initiatives significantly, ensuring the safety of vulnerable communities against the adverse impacts of climate change.
Editor’s note: To reach Atul Jain, call 217-333-2128; email jain1@illinois.edu.
