CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — The University of Illinois Flash Economic Index dropped again in January to 101.3 from its 101.8 reading in December.
“This confirms that the Illinois economy is in a definite slowdown,” said J. Fred Giertz, a UI economist who released the Flash Index today (Feb. 2). The Index indicates that the state economy is still growing, but at its lowest rate in more than eight years. “
In Illinois and nationally, the concern is whether the slowdown will lead to a downturn or a recession,” Giertz said.
Although a recession “is still unlikely,” it cannot be ruled out, Giertz added. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters (six months) of decline in economic activity.
Corporate tax receipts were down in inflation-adjusted terms in January, while both personal income tax and sales-tax collections were nearly constant. A year ago in January, the Index was 102.2, almost a full point higher.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of growth rates in sales-tax receipts, individual income-tax receipts and corporate-earning receipts in Illinois. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through Jan. 31.
Any reading above 100 means the state economy is expanding, while any number below 100 indicates economic activity is declining.
This article was imported from a previous version of the News Bureau website. Please email news@illinois.edu to report missing photos and/or photo credits.
