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Flash Index of Illinois economy fell slightly, indicating slowing of growth

J. Fred Giertz, Institute of Government and Public Affairs
217-244-4822

Mark Reutter, Business Editor, News Bureau
217-333-0568

11/1/2006

EDITORS, NEWS DIRECTORS: The Flash Index of Economic Growth, produced by economists at the University of Illinois, is based on the most up-to-date information on the Illinois economy.


CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — The University of Illinois Flash Economic Index for October fell to 106.0 from its 106.4 level in September.

This suggests a slight slowing of the rate of growth of the Illinois economy. However, the Index is still in strong positive territory in the middle of the 105-107 range that it has occupied for nearly two years. Readings above 100 mean the state economy is expanding, while readings below 100 mean the economy is contracting.

“Last month’s results are consistent with the mixed reports on the national economy, which show a slowing of growth in the third quarter along with relatively low unemployment rates,” J. Fred Giertz, the Illinois professor of economics who compiles the data, said today.

All three components of the Flash Index (individual income tax, corporate tax and sales tax receipts) were up in inflation-adjusted terms from the same month of last year.

The Flash Index is a weighted average of state growth rates in consumer spending, corporate earnings and individual income. Tax receipts from these categories are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through Oct. 31