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UI Flash Economic Index fell slightly in last month in a continued no-growth pattern


J. Fred Giertz, Institute of Government and Public Affairs,
(217) 244-4822


Mark Reutter, Business Editor
(217) 333-0568; mreutter@illinois.edu

8/1/2001

EDITORS, NEWS DIRECTORS: The Flash Index of Economic Growth, produced by economists at the University of Illinois, is based on the most up-to-date information on the state economy.

Graph showing Illinois Flash Economic Index falling slightly signalling no growth.
The Illinois index is a measure of future economic activity (100 = no growth). Analysis by the Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — The University of Illinois Flash Economic Index fell slightly in July to 98.3 from its 98.4 reading in June, indicating a continuation in Illinois of a no-growth situation.

This is the third month in a row with a sub-100 reading and the fourth in the last five months. For the UI Flash Index, 100 is the dividing line between economic growth and decline.

"A period of watchful waiting continues with the state economy hovering between recovery and recession," said J. Fred Giertz, a UI economist who released the Flash Index today (Aug. 1). "The economy in Illinois and the nation still has not experienced the expected rebound from the period of slow growth."

Growth nationally for the second quarter was reported at 0.7 percent. "This is low by recent standards, but still not in recession territory," Giertz said. The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters (six months) of declining gross domestic product.

Corporate tax receipts in Illinois were up slightly last month, while sales and income tax receipts were down. A year ago in July, the UI Index stood at 102.6
An Index reading over 100 means that the state economy is expanding, while a number below 100 indicates that the economy is contracting.

The Flash Index is a weighted average of growth rates in sales tax receipts, individual income tax receipts and corporate earnings in Illinois. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through July 31.