Strategic Communications and Marketing News Bureau

Models predict optimal airplane seating for reduced viral transmission

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — As airline ticket sales have soared during the holiday season and the omicron variant causes surges of COVID-19 cases, a new University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign study may help passengers and airlines reduce risk of COVID-19 transmission by optimally seating passengers to minimize potential virus spread.

Sheldon H. Jacobson, a professor of computer science and of the Carle Illinois College of Medicine, along with graduate students John Pavlik and Ian Ludden, used the most current data on aerosol spread on airplanes to calculate optimal seating assignments for common Boeing aircraft at different capacities.

“Spacing is an obvious challenge on airplanes, especially when the planes are filled at or near capacity over the holiday season. So anything that can be done to reduce risk is a smart choice for everybody,” Jacobson said. “We try to aggregate the risk across all passengers to minimize the overall risk of transmission in an airplane and think about what policies could be most effective.”

The trio previously had calculated models for the airplane seating assignment problem based on droplet transmission, primarily spread through coughing; new data on aerosol transmission for the virus that causes COVID-19 allowed them to create updated models for minimizing risk of transmission based on all the factors currently known. They published their findings in the Journal of Air Transport Management.

The researchers found that, regardless of seating arrangement, masking reduced the risk of transmission by 30% over allowing passengers to unmask. Spacing and passengers opening the air vents above their seats provided additional layers of risk reduction.

While the general principle of leaving middle seats open is a good way to reduce risk, it is not always the best way, the researchers found. Because the aerosol transmission data shows that viral particles can circulate to passengers in front of or behind a seat as well as to others in the same row, the models show the most effective seating arrangements involved a mixture of leaving middle seats open and skipping some rows.

In addition, the very last rows in the back of the plane had less transmission, owing to having fewer people behind them, so in a fuller plane, those rows could be filled, as well as the roomier seats in higher classes.

“The good news financially for airline companies is that there are already fewer neighbors and more space for the first class or business class seats toward the front. So those are safer seats, and you can sell those out if possible and leave seats in economy empty to prioritize safety,” Ludden said.

The models assume each passenger is traveling as an individual, but when families or household groups travel on the same flight and sit together as one block, it reduces overall risk since the group functions as one unit, the researchers said.

“One thing that airlines can do to mitigate risk while still filling seats is make it easier for families to sit together,” Ludden said. “Traveler groups often are split up, but if airlines can prioritize keeping the members near each other, then you group those dependent risks together and reduce the overall risk of a transmission on the plane.”

The researchers also encourage the ongoing use of masks, whether enforced by continued federal mandate or by airline policy.

“Following the guidelines works,” Jacobson said. “If you follow them when you’re on an airplane, you’re going to help yourself and you’re going to help everybody else. A mask is a barrier to your respiratory system. Your individual risk of contracting or spreading the virus depends on how good that barrier is and whether you remove it. Risk reduction is possible, but risk cannot be completely eliminated.”

Editor’s note: To contact Sheldon H. Jacobson, call 217-244-7275; email shj@illinois.edu.

The paper “SARS-CoV-2 aerosol risk models for the airplane seating assignment problem” is available online. DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2021.102175

Read Next

Campus news University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign students Lindsay Bitner-Mitchell and Cecelia Escobar have been selected to participate in the U.S.-U.K. Fulbright Commission’s Summer Institutes program. Photo collage: Fred Zwicky

Two Illinois students selected for Fulbright’s Summer Institute to the UK

Two University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign students received places in the Fulbright Commission’s Summer Institutes program.

Research news Portrait of Lissette Piedra standing in front of a bookcase wearing a beige jacket and black shirt

Study reveals how social networks shape health in later life

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. ― A new study sheds light on the powerful connection between social networks and health in later life and reveals a surprising path for improving health equity among older adults. Published in the journal Innovation in Aging, the study tracked over 1,500 older adults for a decade using three rounds of data from […]

Expert viewpoints A man in a dark suit stands outside with orange foliage in the background

Does REAL ID really make flying safer?

REAL ID enhances air travel security by verifying that individuals are who they say they are, says professor Sheldon H. Jacobson.

Strategic Communications and Marketing News Bureau

507 E. Green St
MC-426
Champaign, IL 61820

Email: stratcom@illinois.edu

Phone (217) 333-5010