CHAMPAIGN, Ill. – After a period of consistent increases, the University of Illinois Flash Index has stabilized at just above 100. The June reading for the index was 100.3, the same as both April and May.
“This does not mean the Illinois economy is slowing, but it does suggest that the state economy may be in the doldrums while the national economy is still expanding,” said J. Fred Giertz, the University of Illinois economist who released the data today (July 6).
“Historically, this is very early in the recovery (from the 2001 recession) for this to happen. The next few months should provide more definitive guidance as to whether this is merely a transitory problem or something more serious.”
In regard to the components of the index, sales-tax receipts were up in real terms from the same month last year while individual income-tax and corporate-tax receipts were basically unchanged.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through June 30.
