Strategic Communications and Marketing News Bureau

Expert: Give ex-players a slight edge in O’Bannon case

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. – As the collegiate sports world awaits a federal judge’s ruling in O’Bannon v. NCAA, the sport’s governing body ought to be prepared to lose, as trial courts in the 9th Circuit are more “player-friendly” than trial courts in all other circuits, according to a statistical analysis from a University of Illinois expert in labor relations and collective bargaining in athletics.

The analysis suggests that the plaintiffs in the O’Bannon case – a class comprised of former NCAA Division I football and basketball players, all seeking financial compensation from the NCAA for the commercial use of their images – have a greater than 50-50 chance of winning at trial, says Michael LeRoy, a professor of labor and employment relations at Illinois and author of the recently published legal casebook “Collective Bargaining in Sports and Entertainment.”

According to LeRoy’s analysis, the NCAA has won 42.8 percent of 9th Circuit cases (three out of seven) compared to winning 52.8 percent (19 out of 36) of first rulings of district court cases in other circuits.

“It’s a small sample size, but the margin is about 10 percent,” he said.

If the O’Bannon case follows these trends, LeRoy predicts U.S. District Court Judge Claudia Wilken will rule in favor of the plaintiffs. But LeRoy also cautions to expect a lengthy subsequent process for arguments on damages, as well as motions by the NCAA to reconsider and, eventually, a formal appeal.

While student-athletes win all or part of 57.2 percent of district court cases, the NCAA wins a whopping 66.6 percent of cases on appeal.

“The NCAA has had less success in the 9th Circuit compared to appellate courts in all other circuits,” LeRoy said. “However, the more significant finding is that the NCAA prevailed in 72 percent of appellate cases, regardless of the circuit. And its 66.6 percent win-rate in the 9th Circuit, while less than in others, was still fairly high.”

But the most likely path to resolving the situation is a settlement offer from the NCAA.

“I would expect the NCAA to make a very tempting offer to blunt the impact of an adverse district court ruling,” he said.

But any ruling in favor of the plaintiffs would be a disaster for the NCAA to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars, and would likely mean the end of national championships, LeRoy said.

“That’s why a settlement is and always has been the best outcome for the NCAA,” he said.

To contact Michael LeRoy, call 217-766-5012; email m-leroy@illinois.edu.

Read Next

Announcements Marcelo Garcia, professor of civil and environmental engineering at The Grainger College of Engineering.

Illinois faculty member elected to National Academy of Engineering

Champaign, Ill. — Marcelo Garcia, a professor of civil and environmental engineering in The Grainger College of Engineering, has been elected to the National Academy of Engineering.

Social sciences Male and female student embracing on the quad with flowering redbud tree and the ACES library in the background. Photo by Michelle Hassel

Dating is not broken, but the trajectories of relationships have changed

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — According to some popular culture writers and online posts by discouraged singles lamenting their inability to find romantic partners, dating is “broken,” fractured by the social isolation created by technology, pandemic lockdowns and potential partners’ unrealistic expectations. Yet two studies of college students conducted a decade apart found that their ideas about […]

Engineering Civil and Environmental Engineering Professor Nishant Garg, center, is joined by fellow researchers, from left: Yujia Min, Hossein Kabir, Nishant Garg, center, Chirayu Kothari and M. Farjad Iqbal, front right. In front are examples of clay samples dissolved at different concentrations in a NaOH solution. The team invented a new test that can predict the performance of cementitious materials in mere 5 minutes. This is in contrast to the standard ASTM tests, which take up to 28 days. This new advance enables real-time quality control at production plants of emerging, sustainable materials. Photo taken at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign on Monday, Feb. 3, 2025. (Photo by Fred Zwicky / University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign)

Researchers develop a five-minute quality test for sustainable cement industry materials

A new test developed at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign can predict the performance of a new type of cementitious construction material in five minutes — a significant improvement over the current industry standard method, which takes seven or more days to complete. This development is poised to advance the use of next-generation resources called supplementary cementitious materials — or SCMs — by speeding up the quality-check process before leaving the production floor.

Strategic Communications and Marketing News Bureau

507 E. Green St
MC-426
Champaign, IL 61820

Email: stratcom@illinois.edu

Phone (217) 333-5010