CHAMPAIGN, Ill. - As the collegiate sports world awaits a federal judge's ruling in O'Bannon v. NCAA, the sport's governing body ought to be prepared to lose, as trial courts in the 9th Circuit are more "player-friendly" than trial courts in all other circuits, according to a statistical analysis from a University of Illinois expert in labor relations and collective bargaining in athletics.
The analysis suggests that the plaintiffs in the O'Bannon case - a class comprised of former NCAA Division I football and basketball players, all seeking financial compensation from the NCAA for the commercial use of their images - have a greater than 50-50 chance of winning at trial, says Michael LeRoy, a professor of labor and employment relations at Illinois and author of the recently published legal casebook "Collective Bargaining in Sports and Entertainment."
According to LeRoy's analysis, the NCAA has won 42.8 percent of 9th Circuit cases (three out of seven) compared to winning 52.8 percent (19 out of 36) of first rulings of district court cases in other circuits.
"It's a small sample size, but the margin is about 10 percent," he said.
If the O'Bannon case follows these trends, LeRoy predicts U.S. District Court Judge Claudia Wilken will rule in favor of the plaintiffs. But LeRoy also cautions to expect a lengthy subsequent process for arguments on damages, as well as motions by the NCAA to reconsider and, eventually, a formal appeal.
While student-athletes win all or part of 57.2 percent of district court cases, the NCAA wins a whopping 66.6 percent of cases on appeal.
"The NCAA has had less success in the 9th Circuit compared to appellate courts in all other circuits," LeRoy said. "However, the more significant finding is that the NCAA prevailed in 72 percent of appellate cases, regardless of the circuit. And its 66.6 percent win-rate in the 9th Circuit, while less than in others, was still fairly high."
But the most likely path to resolving the situation is a settlement offer from the NCAA.
"I would expect the NCAA to make a very tempting offer to blunt the impact of an adverse district court ruling," he said.
But any ruling in favor of the plaintiffs would be a disaster for the NCAA to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars, and would likely mean the end of national championships, LeRoy said.
"That's why a settlement is and always has been the best outcome for the NCAA," he said.