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Flash Index of Illinois economy
rises to highest level in nearly four years
Giertz, Institute of Government and Public Affairs
NEWS DIRECTORS: The Flash Index of Economic Growth, produced by economists
at the University of Illinois, is based on the most up-to-date information
on the Illinois economy.
Ill. — The University of Illinois Flash Economic Index continued
its strong performance in September, rising to 102.2 compared with 100.5
in August. This is the highest level since October 2000, a period of
almost four years.
“September appears to be a breakout month,” said J. Fred
Giertz, the University of Illinois economist who released the Flash data today (Oct. 4).
“Illinois has been lagging compared with the rest of the nation
in the recovery from the 2001 recession. September’s performance
suggests that Illinois may now be catching up. But the usual caveat
is in order: One unusually good (or bad) month does not establish a
trend. It will be important to see if October’s results confirm
this month’s Index.”
A year ago in September, the Flash Index stood at 96.2, far below the
break-even mark between economic growth and contraction.
All three components of the Index (receipts from individual income tax,
corporate tax and sales tax) registered strong growth last month. Corporate
tax receipts were especially strong, Giertz reported.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate
earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate
income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation
before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component
is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through Sept.