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Flash Index of Illinois economy on the upswing
J.
Fred Giertz, Institute of Government and Public Affairs
217-244-4822
Mark Reutter, Business Editor
217-333-0568
2/2/04
EDITORS,
NEWS DIRECTORS: The Flash Index of Economic Growth, produced by economists
at the University of Illinois, is based on the most up-to-date information
on the Illinois economy.
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — The University of Illinois Flash Economic Index
continued its recent climb in the first month of 2004, rising to 98.5
in January, up from 98.0 in December.
The Index has increased steadily since September when it stood at 96.2.
It is up from 95.7 in January a year ago and 94.2 in May 2002, the lowest
point of a downturn that started three years ago in March 2001.
Last month’s results indicate that the state economy may be within
striking distance of the 100 level of the Index, which separates economic
growth from contraction, said J. Fred Giertz, the University of Illinois
economist who compiled the data.
Corporate income tax receipts were strong in January, and sales-tax
receipts recorded a small gain compared with the same month a year ago.
Personal income tax was the weakest of the components, “possibly
reflecting the slow growth of employment during the recovery of the
last four months,” Giertz said.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate
earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate
income, individual income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation
before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component
is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through Jan. 31.
