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UI Flash Economic Index ended the year on a down note
Mark
Reutter, Business Editor
(217) 333-0568; mreutter@illinois.edu
1/3/02
EDITORS, NEWS DIRECTORS: The Flash Index of Economic Growth, produced by economists at the University of Illinois, is based on the most up-to-date information on the state economy.
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — The
Illinois economy ended the year on a down note as the University of
Illinois Economic Index fell to 97.8 in December from its 98.0 reading
in November. Like the national economy, the state remains in a recession.
The Flash Index stood at 101.8 a year ago in December, but dropped below
100 (the dividing line between economic expansion and decline) in March
2001 for the first time in more than nine years and continued a slow
decline throughout the year.
So far, however, the recession is modest by historical standards. The
Flash Index in the recession of the early 1980s was 85.9, and 92.2 during
the last recession in 1992. The state unemployment rate of 5.8 percent
in November was up from its low of 4.1 percent in early 1999. But the
unemployment rate reached a high of 12.9 percent in 1982 and 8.5 percent
in 1991 during the previous two recessions.
"While there have been some isolated encouraging signs and there
is hope among experts that the recession will end in the first half
of 2002, the recovery is not now under way," said J. Fred Giertz,
a UI economist who released the data today.
Income-tax receipts last month were up in "real" (inflation-adjusted)
terms, while
sales-tax receipts were down slightly from the same month last year.
Corporate tax receipts, the most volatile component of the Index, were
down significantly.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate
earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate
income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation
before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component
is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through Dec. 31.
