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UI Flash Economic Index rebounds in April
J.
Fred Giertz, Institute of Government and Public Affairs,
(217) 244-4822
Mark
Reutter, Business Editor
(217) 333-0568; mreutter@illinois.edu
5/1/01
EDITORS,
NEWS DIRECTORS: The Flash Index of Economic Growth, produced by economists
at the University of Illinois, is based on the most up-to-date information
on the state economy.
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — After
a month below the 100 mark, the University of Illinois Flash Economic
Index rebounded in April, indicating positive growth for the Illinois
economy.
The April reading of 101.3 was a sharp rise from the 99.7 level in March.
"It is too early to label the April results as a turnaround,"
said J. Fred Giertz, a UI economist who released the Flash Index today
(May 1).
But Giertz said the reading did indicate that the economy was not in
a recession (as officially defined by two quarters of negative growth),
but rather in a period of slow growth similar to the pace of the second
half of 2000. A year ago in April, the Flash Index stood at 103.2.
"The results over the next few months will answer the question
of whether the economy has made a soft landing and avoided the much-talked-about
recession that has, in fact, not yet happened," Giertz said.
The engine of growth in the Flash Index last month was individual income-tax
receipts. The state of Illinois registered the first $1 billion month
in individual income-tax collections in its history. Corporate profits
were also up in "real" (inflation-adjusted) terms.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of growth rates in sales-tax receipts,
individual income-tax receipts and corporate earnings in Illinois. The
growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period
using data through April 30.
