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Flash Index indicates Illinois economy gaining steam
J.
Fred Giertz, Institute of Government and Public Affairs
217-244-4822
Mark
Reutter , Business Editor
217-333-0568; mreutter@illinois.edu
12/2/03
EDITORS,
NEWS DIRECTORS: The Flash Index of Economic Growth, produced by University
of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign economists, is based on the most up-to-date
information on the state economy.
CHAMPAIGN,
Ill. — The University of Illinois Flash Economic Index extended
its gains last month, rising to 97.3 in November from 96.8 in October.
The November reading was the highest since December 2001.
The recovery, which is gaining steam nationally, appears to be taking
hold in Illinois, although the Flash Index has not yet reached the 100
dividing line between economic growth and contraction. The Index has
been below 100 for 31 consecutive months, or since May 2001.
The Flash reading for last month was complicated by the state’s
tax amnesty program, which allowed taxpayers to pay back-tax obligations
without penalties or interest from Oct. 1, 2003, through Nov. 15, 2003.
Amnesty payments had a major impact on corporate tax receipts and a
lesser impact on individual income-tax collections for November. It
was necessary to separate the amnesty revenues from normal revenues
to calculate the Flash Index for the month.
Sales tax receipts, largely unaffected by the amnesty, were up strongly
for the month compared with November of last year, according to J. Fred
Giertz, the University of Illinois economist who released the Flash
results today. Overall, the Index was at 95.3 in November a year ago.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate
earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate
income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation
before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component
is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through Nov. 30.
