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The UI Flash Economic Index fell slightly in November
Mark Reutter,
News Bureau
(217) 333-0568; mreutter@illinois.edu
12/4/01
NOTE TO EDITORS AND
NEWS DIRECTORS: For the first time in more than eight years, the Flash
Index fell below 100 (the dividing line between growth and decline)
in March 2001 and has remained below 100 except for the month of April.
March 2001 is the date established last week by the National Bureau
of Economic Research as the official start of the current national recession.
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — The University of Illinois Flash Economic Index
fell slightly in November to 98.0 from its October level of 98.4. This
reflects continued sluggish economic conditions in Illinois.
As noted last month, the Index has not registered a significant decline
in the wake of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11. Rather, the November
reading reflects the continuing slowdown that predates the attacks by
six months, said J. Fred Giertz, the UI economist who released the UI
data today (Dec. 4).
A year ago in November, the Flash reading was 101.9.
The Illinois economy, as measured by the Flash Index, has closely paralleled
the national economy during the last year. "So far," Giertz
said, "the recession has been mild and there is hope for a modest
rebound in the first half of 2002. Inflation is under control and the
Federal Reserve has taken quick and decisive action in cutting interest
rates. However, definitive signs of a recovery either in Illinois or
the nation have yet to appear."
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate
earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate
income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation
before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component
is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through Nov. 30.
